La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

Saturday 29 Aug, 17:00
Full time
2–1
chances 2.92 – 0.93 xG
✓ called — we picked RSO; the RSO win we priced at 53%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
53 · 24 · 24RSO · draw · ESP
2–1
Likeliest RSO win · 10%
REAL SOCIEDAD 53%DRAW 24%ESPANYOL 24%

Expected goals: RSO 1.84 · ESP 1.20

Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
RSO or draw76%
Draw or ESP47%
RSO or ESPno draw76%
Draw no bet
RSOstake returned on a draw69%
ESP31%
Clean sheets
RSO clean sheet30%
ESP clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
RSO↓ ESP→012345
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2–1 · 9.7%
A RSO win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
RSO 114 drawn5 ESP
2025/26Espanyol1–1Real Sociedad2026-05-23
2025/26Real Sociedad2–2Espanyol2025-08-24
2024/25Real Sociedad2–1Espanyol2025-02-09
2024/25Espanyol0–1Real Sociedad2024-08-24
2022/23Espanyol2–3Real Sociedad2023-02-13

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.