La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
56 · 24 · 21RSO · draw · DEP
2–1
Likeliest RSO win · 10%
REAL SOCIEDAD 56%DRAW 24%DEPORTIVO 21%
Expected goals: RSO 1.93 · DEP 1.14
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
RSO or draw79%
Draw or DEP45%
RSO or DEPno draw76%
Draw no bet
RSOstake returned on a draw73%
DEP27%
Clean sheets
RSO clean sheet32%
DEP clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RSO↓ DEP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RSO goals, columns DEP. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
RSO 34 drawn1 DEP
2017/18Real Sociedad5–0Deportivo2018-02-02
2017/18Deportivo2–4Real Sociedad2017-09-10
2016/17Real Sociedad1–0Deportivo2017-04-23
2016/17Deportivo5–1Real Sociedad2016-12-05
2015/16Real Sociedad1–1Deportivo2016-01-17
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.