La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Thursday 3 Sept, 19:00

Full time

0–0

chances 1.02 – 0.63 xG

✗ missed — we picked RSO; the draw we priced at 24%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

51 · 24 · 25RSO · draw · CEL

REAL SOCIEDAD 51%DRAW 24%CELTA VIGO 25%

Expected goals: RSO 1.81 · CEL 1.23

Goals

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams score60%

Double chance

RSO or draw75%

Draw or CEL49%

RSO or CELno draw76%

Draw no bet

RSOstake returned on a draw67%

CEL33%

Clean sheets

RSO clean sheet29%

CEL clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.