La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 16)

Real Sociedad vs Atlético

Sunday 13 Sept, 20:00
Full time
0–3
chances 0.61 – 1.83 xG
✗ missed — we picked RSO; the ATM win we priced at 35%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 16 assessments
40 · 25 · 35RSO · draw · ATM
2–1
Likeliest RSO win · 9%
REAL SOCIEDAD 40%DRAW 25%ATLÉTICO 35%

Expected goals: RSO 1.70 · ATM 1.58

Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
RSO or draw65%
Draw or ATM60%
RSO or ATMno draw75%
Draw no bet
RSOstake returned on a draw53%
ATM47%
Clean sheets
RSO clean sheet21%
ATM clean sheet18%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
RSO↓ ATM→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–3 · 2.2%
A ATM win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
RSO 45 drawn15 ATM
2025/26Atlético3–2Real Sociedad2026-03-07
2025/26Real Sociedad1–1Atlético2026-01-04
2024/25Atlético4–0Real Sociedad2025-05-10
2024/25Real Sociedad1–1Atlético2024-10-06
2023/24Real Sociedad0–2Atlético2024-05-25

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.