La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Real Sociedad vs Atlético
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
41 · 23 · 36RSO · draw · ATM
2–1
Likeliest RSO win · 9%
REAL SOCIEDAD 41%DRAW 23%ATLÉTICO 36%
Expected goals: RSO 1.74 · ATM 1.61
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
RSO or draw65%
Draw or ATM59%
RSO or ATMno draw77%
Draw no bet
RSOstake returned on a draw54%
ATM46%
Clean sheets
RSO clean sheet20%
ATM clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RSO↓ ATM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RSO goals, columns ATM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
RSO 45 drawn15 ATM
2025/26Atlético3–2Real Sociedad2026-03-07
2025/26Real Sociedad1–1Atlético2026-01-04
2024/25Atlético4–0Real Sociedad2025-05-10
2024/25Real Sociedad1–1Atlético2024-10-06
2023/24Real Sociedad0–2Atlético2024-05-25
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.