La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
65 · 18 · 16RMA · draw · VIL
2–1
Likeliest RMA win · 9%
REAL MADRID 65%DRAW 18%VILLARREAL 16%
Expected goals: RMA 2.61 · VIL 1.32
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
RMA or draw84%
Draw or VIL35%
RMA or VILno draw82%
Draw no bet
RMAstake returned on a draw80%
VIL20%
Clean sheets
RMA clean sheet27%
VIL clean sheet7%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RMA↓ VIL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RMA goals, columns VIL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
RMA 119 drawn4 VIL
2025/26Villarreal0–2Real Madrid2026-01-24
2025/26Real Madrid3–1Villarreal2025-10-04
2024/25Villarreal1–2Real Madrid2025-03-15
2024/25Real Madrid2–0Villarreal2024-10-05
2023/24Villarreal4–4Real Madrid2024-05-19
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.