La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Sunday 18 Oct, 20:00
76 · 16 · 8RMA · draw · SEV
2–0
Likeliest RMA win · 13%
REAL MADRID 76%DRAW 16%SEVILLA 8%
Expected goals: RMA 2.47 · SEV 0.73
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
RMA or draw93%
Draw or SEV24%
RMA or SEVno draw84%
Draw no bet
RMAstake returned on a draw91%
SEV9%
Clean sheets
RMA clean sheet48%
SEV clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RMA↓ SEV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are RMA goals, columns SEV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
RMA 182 drawn4 SEV
2025/26Sevilla0–1Real Madrid2026-05-17
2025/26Real Madrid2–0Sevilla2025-12-20
2024/25Sevilla0–2Real Madrid2025-05-18
2024/25Real Madrid4–2Sevilla2024-12-22
2023/24Real Madrid1–0Sevilla2024-02-25
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.