La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Wednesday 26 Aug, 19:00
Full time
4–1
chances 3.31 – 0.46 xG
✓ called — we picked RMA; the RMA win we priced at 73%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
73 · 16 · 11RMA · draw · RSO
2–0
Likeliest RMA win · 9%
REAL MADRID 73%DRAW 16%REAL SOCIEDAD 11%
Expected goals: RMA 2.61 · RSO 1.01
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
RMA or draw89%
Draw or RSO27%
RMA or RSOno draw84%
Draw no bet
RMAstake returned on a draw87%
RSO13%
Clean sheets
RMA clean sheet37%
RSO clean sheet7%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RMA↓ RSO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
4–1 · 5.3%
A RMA win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
RMA 173 drawn4 RSO
2025/26Real Madrid4–1Real Sociedad2026-02-14
2025/26Real Sociedad1–2Real Madrid2025-09-13
2024/25Real Madrid2–0Real Sociedad2025-05-24
2024/25Real Sociedad0–2Real Madrid2024-09-14
2023/24Real Sociedad0–1Real Madrid2024-04-26
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.