La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 13)
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Saturday 12 Sept, 19:00
Full time
4–1
chances 3.12 – 1.19 xG
✓ called — we picked RMA; the RMA win we priced at 73%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 13 assessments
73 · 17 · 10RMA · draw · RAY
2–0
Likeliest RMA win · 11%
REAL MADRID 73%DRAW 17%RAYO VALLECANO 10%
Expected goals: RMA 2.52 · RAY 0.92
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
RMA or draw90%
Draw or RAY27%
RMA or RAYno draw83%
Draw no bet
RMAstake returned on a draw88%
RAY12%
Clean sheets
RMA clean sheet40%
RAY clean sheet8%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RMA↓ RAY→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
4–1 · 5.0%
A RMA win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
RMA 104 drawn2 RAY
2025/26Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano2026-02-01
2025/26Rayo Vallecano0–0Real Madrid2025-11-09
2024/25Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano2025-03-09
2024/25Rayo Vallecano3–3Real Madrid2024-12-14
2023/24Rayo Vallecano1–1Real Madrid2024-02-18
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.