La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 10)

Real Madrid vs Málaga

Sunday 30 Aug, 15:00
Full time
4–0
chances 3.41 – 0.76 xG
✓ called — we picked RMA; the RMA win we priced at 82%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 10 assessments
82 · 12 · 6RMA · draw · MAL
2–0
Likeliest RMA win · 13%
REAL MADRID 82%DRAW 12%MÁLAGA 6%

Expected goals: RMA 2.79 · MAL 0.69

Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
RMA or draw95%
Draw or MAL18%
RMA or MALno draw88%
Draw no bet
RMAstake returned on a draw94%
MAL6%
Clean sheets
RMA clean sheet51%
MAL clean sheet6%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
RMA↓ MAL→012345
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4–0 · 7.3%
A RMA win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Málaga — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
RMA 62 drawn0 MAL
2017/18Málaga1–2Real Madrid2018-04-15
2017/18Real Madrid3–2Málaga2017-11-25
2016/17Málaga0–2Real Madrid2017-05-21
2016/17Real Madrid2–1Málaga2017-01-21
2015/16Málaga1–1Real Madrid2016-02-21

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.