La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 9)
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Friday 4 Sept, 19:00
30 · 24 · 46REA · draw · RMA
1–2
Likeliest RMA win · 9%
REAL BETIS 30%DRAW 24%REAL MADRID 46%
Expected goals: REA 1.38 · RMA 1.73
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
REA or draw54%
Draw or RMA70%
REA or RMAno draw76%
Draw no bet
REAstake returned on a draw40%
RMA60%
Clean sheets
REA clean sheet18%
RMA clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| REA↓ RMA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are REA goals, columns RMA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
REA 48 drawn10 RMA
2025/26Real Betis1–1Real Madrid2026-04-24
2025/26Real Madrid5–1Real Betis2026-01-04
2024/25Real Betis2–1Real Madrid2025-03-01
2024/25Real Madrid2–0Real Betis2024-09-01
2023/24Real Madrid0–0Real Betis2024-05-25
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.