La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 17)

Real Betis vs Getafe

Thursday 17 Sept, 17:00
Full time
1–0
chances 2.61 – 0.33 xG
✓ called — we picked REA; the REA win we priced at 59%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 17 assessments
59 · 27 · 14REA · draw · GET
1–0
Likeliest REA win · 17%
REAL BETIS 59%DRAW 27%GETAFE 14%

Expected goals: REA 1.60 · GET 0.69

Goals
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams score42%
Double chance
REA or draw86%
Draw or GET41%
REA or GETno draw73%
Draw no bet
REAstake returned on a draw81%
GET19%
Clean sheets
REA clean sheet50%
GET clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
REA↓ GET→012345
0
1
2
3
4
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1–0 · 16.9%
A REA win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 17 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2015/16
REA 85 drawn7 GET
2025/26Getafe2–0Real Betis2026-03-08
2025/26Real Betis4–0Getafe2025-12-21
2024/25Getafe1–2Real Betis2025-02-23
2024/25Real Betis2–1Getafe2024-09-18
2023/24Real Betis1–1Getafe2024-02-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.