La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Real Betis vs Barcelona
Saturday 17 Oct, 17:30
23 · 21 · 56REA · draw · BAR
1–2
Likeliest BAR win · 9%
REAL BETIS 23%DRAW 21%BARCELONA 56%
Expected goals: REA 1.51 · BAR 2.35
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score71%
Double chance
REA or draw44%
Draw or BAR77%
REA or BARno draw79%
Draw no bet
REAstake returned on a draw29%
BAR71%
Clean sheets
REA clean sheet10%
BAR clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| REA↓ BAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are REA goals, columns BAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
REA 23 drawn17 BAR
2025/26Barcelona3–1Real Betis2026-05-17
2025/26Real Betis3–5Barcelona2025-12-06
2024/25Barcelona1–1Real Betis2025-04-05
2024/25Real Betis2–2Barcelona2024-12-07
2023/24Real Betis2–4Barcelona2024-01-21
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.