La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing
Saturday 5 Sept, 17:30
Full time
3–2
chances 1.19 – 0.63 xG
✓ called — we picked RAY; the RAY win we priced at 39%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
39 · 25 · 36RAY · draw · RAC
2–1
Likeliest RAY win · 9%
RAYO VALLECANO 39%DRAW 25%RACING 36%
Expected goals: RAY 1.55 · RAC 1.48
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
RAY or draw64%
Draw or RAC61%
RAY or RACno draw75%
Draw no bet
RAYstake returned on a draw52%
RAC48%
Clean sheets
RAY clean sheet23%
RAC clean sheet21%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAY↓ RAC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–2 · 3.5%
A RAY win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.