La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 16)
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Tuesday 15 Sept, 17:00
Full time
2–1
chances 1.83 – 1.16 xG
✓ called — we picked RAY; the RAY win we priced at 51%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 16 assessments
50 · 26 · 24RAY · draw · ESP
1–0
Likeliest RAY win · 11%
RAYO VALLECANO 50%DRAW 26%ESPANYOL 24%
Expected goals: RAY 1.68 · ESP 1.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
RAY or draw76%
Draw or ESP50%
RAY or ESPno draw74%
Draw no bet
RAYstake returned on a draw68%
ESP32%
Clean sheets
RAY clean sheet33%
ESP clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAY↓ ESP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 9.7%
A RAY win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2014/15
RAY 52 drawn7 ESP
2025/26Rayo Vallecano1–0Espanyol2026-04-23
2025/26Espanyol1–0Rayo Vallecano2025-12-07
2024/25Rayo Vallecano0–4Espanyol2025-04-04
2024/25Espanyol2–1Rayo Vallecano2024-08-31
2022/23Rayo Vallecano1–2Espanyol2023-05-21
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.