La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Saturday 24 Oct, 13:00
56 · 24 · 20RAY · draw · ELC
2–1
Likeliest RAY win · 10%
RAYO VALLECANO 56%DRAW 24%ELCHE 20%
Expected goals: RAY 1.93 · ELC 1.12
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
RAY or draw80%
Draw or ELC44%
RAY or ELCno draw76%
Draw no bet
RAYstake returned on a draw73%
ELC27%
Clean sheets
RAY clean sheet33%
ELC clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAY↓ ELC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RAY goals, columns ELC. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
RAY 30 drawn5 ELC
2025/26Rayo Vallecano1–0Elche2026-04-03
2025/26Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano2025-12-21
2022/23Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano2023-04-29
2022/23Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche2022-10-03
2021/22Elche2–1Rayo Vallecano2022-02-18
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.