La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
39 · 29 · 33RAY · draw · ATH
1–0
Likeliest RAY win · 10%
RAYO VALLECANO 39%DRAW 29%ATHLETIC 33%
Expected goals: RAY 1.36 · ATH 1.24
Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
RAY or draw67%
Draw or ATH62%
RAY or ATHno draw71%
Draw no bet
RAYstake returned on a draw54%
ATH46%
Clean sheets
RAY clean sheet29%
ATH clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAY↓ ATH→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RAY goals, columns ATH. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
RAY 23 drawn11 ATH
2025/26Rayo Vallecano1–1Athletic2026-02-28
2025/26Athletic1–0Rayo Vallecano2025-08-25
2024/25Athletic3–1Rayo Vallecano2025-04-13
2024/25Rayo Vallecano1–2Athletic2024-12-01
2023/24Rayo Vallecano0–1Athletic2024-05-25
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.