La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Racing vs Valencia
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
42 · 24 · 34RAC · draw · VAL
2–1
Likeliest RAC win · 9%
RACING 42%DRAW 24%VALENCIA 34%
Expected goals: RAC 1.79 · VAL 1.60
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
RAC or draw66%
Draw or VAL58%
RAC or VALno draw76%
Draw no bet
RACstake returned on a draw55%
VAL45%
Clean sheets
RAC clean sheet20%
VAL clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAC↓ VAL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RAC goals, columns VAL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.