La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Racing vs Espanyol
Saturday 24 Oct, 15:15
40 · 24 · 36RAC · draw · ESP
2–1
Likeliest RAC win · 8%
RACING 40%DRAW 24%ESPANYOL 36%
Expected goals: RAC 1.79 · ESP 1.68
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
RAC or draw65%
Draw or ESP60%
RAC or ESPno draw76%
Draw no bet
RACstake returned on a draw53%
ESP47%
Clean sheets
RAC clean sheet19%
ESP clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAC↓ ESP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RAC goals, columns ESP. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.