La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 10)

Racing vs Elche

Friday 28 Aug, 17:00

Full time

3–2

chances 2.56 – 1.08 xG

✓ called — we picked RAC; the RAC win we priced at 42%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 10 assessments

43 · 27 · 31RAC · draw · ELC

1–0

Likeliest RAC win · 10%

RACING 43%DRAW 27%ELCHE 31%

Expected goals: RAC 1.49 · ELC 1.25

Goals

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams score56%

Double chance

RAC or draw69%

Draw or ELC57%

RAC or ELCno draw73%

Draw no bet

RACstake returned on a draw58%

ELC42%

Clean sheets

RAC clean sheet29%

ELC clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

RAC↓ ELC→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

3–2 · 3.0%

A RAC win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Racing — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.