La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Racing vs Alavés
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
53 · 24 · 23RAC · draw · ALA
1–0
Likeliest RAC win · 11%
RACING 53%DRAW 24%ALAVÉS 23%
Expected goals: RAC 1.78 · ALA 1.13
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
RAC or draw77%
Draw or ALA47%
RAC or ALAno draw76%
Draw no bet
RACstake returned on a draw70%
ALA30%
Clean sheets
RAC clean sheet32%
ALA clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAC↓ ALA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RAC goals, columns ALA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.