La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 10)
Racing vs Alavés
Saturday 12 Sept, 12:00
Full time
2–1
chances 1.38 – 2.27 xG
✓ called — we picked RAC; the RAC win we priced at 49%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 10 assessments
49 · 25 · 26RAC · draw · ALA
1–0
Likeliest RAC win · 10%
RACING 49%DRAW 25%ALAVÉS 26%
Expected goals: RAC 1.69 · ALA 1.20
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
RAC or draw74%
Draw or ALA51%
RAC or ALAno draw75%
Draw no bet
RACstake returned on a draw65%
ALA35%
Clean sheets
RAC clean sheet30%
ALA clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RAC↓ ALA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 9.5%
A RAC win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.