La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

Saturday 19 Sept, 12:00
Full time
1–1
chances 0.93 – 1.36 xG
✗ missed — we picked OSA; the draw we priced at 27%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
43 · 27 · 30OSA · draw · RAY
1–0
Likeliest OSA win · 10%
OSASUNA 43%DRAW 27%RAYO VALLECANO 30%

Expected goals: OSA 1.53 · RAY 1.25

Goals
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
OSA or draw70%
Draw or RAY57%
OSA or RAYno draw73%
Draw no bet
OSAstake returned on a draw59%
RAY41%
Clean sheets
OSA clean sheet28%
RAY clean sheet22%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
OSA↓ RAY→012345
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1–1 · 12.0%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 12 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 10 meetings since 2021/22
OSA 61 drawn3 RAY
2025/26Rayo Vallecano1–3Osasuna2026-01-24
2025/26Osasuna2–0Rayo Vallecano2025-09-14
2024/25Osasuna1–1Rayo Vallecano2025-01-19
2024/25Rayo Vallecano3–1Osasuna2024-09-16
2023/24Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna2024-04-20

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.