La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Osasuna vs Racing
Sunday 18 Oct, 13:00
59 · 21 · 20OSA · draw · RAC
2–1
Likeliest OSA win · 9%
OSASUNA 59%DRAW 21%RACING 20%
Expected goals: OSA 2.31 · RAC 1.33
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
OSA or draw80%
Draw or RAC41%
OSA or RACno draw79%
Draw no bet
OSAstake returned on a draw75%
RAC25%
Clean sheets
OSA clean sheet26%
RAC clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| OSA↓ RAC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are OSA goals, columns RAC. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.