La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Osasuna vs Levante
Monday 24 Aug, 17:30
Full time
0–0
chances 0.89 – 1.27 xG
✗ missed — we picked OSA; the draw we priced at 24%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
52 · 24 · 24OSA · draw · LEV
1–0
Likeliest OSA win · 10%
OSASUNA 52%DRAW 24%LEVANTE 24%
Expected goals: OSA 1.79 · LEV 1.17
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
OSA or draw76%
Draw or LEV48%
OSA or LEVno draw76%
Draw no bet
OSAstake returned on a draw69%
LEV31%
Clean sheets
OSA clean sheet31%
LEV clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| OSA↓ LEV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 5.7%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2019/20
OSA 42 drawn2 LEV
2025/26Levante3–2Osasuna2026-05-08
2025/26Osasuna2–0Levante2025-12-08
2021/22Osasuna3–1Levante2022-03-19
2021/22Levante0–0Osasuna2021-12-05
2020/21Levante0–1Osasuna2021-02-14
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.