La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 13)
Osasuna vs Getafe
Monday 31 Aug, 18:30
Full time
1–0
chances 1.71 – 1.09 xG
✓ called — we picked OSA; the OSA win we priced at 51%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 13 assessments
51 · 32 · 17OSA · draw · GET
1–0
Likeliest OSA win · 19%
OSASUNA 51%DRAW 32%GETAFE 17%
Expected goals: OSA 1.28 · GET 0.67
Goals
Over 1.5 goals56%
Over 2.5 goals31%
Over 3.5 goals15%
Both teams score37%
Double chance
OSA or draw83%
Draw or GET49%
OSA or GETno draw68%
Draw no bet
OSAstake returned on a draw75%
GET25%
Clean sheets
OSA clean sheet51%
GET clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| OSA↓ GET→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–0 · 18.9%
A OSA win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 19 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
OSA 25 drawn7 GET
2025/26Getafe1–0Osasuna2026-05-23
2025/26Osasuna2–1Getafe2025-10-03
2024/25Osasuna1–2Getafe2025-03-16
2024/25Getafe1–1Osasuna2024-10-05
2023/24Osasuna3–2Getafe2024-01-21
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.