La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Osasuna vs Espanyol
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
55 · 25 · 20OSA · draw · ESP
1–0
Likeliest OSA win · 13%
OSASUNA 55%DRAW 25%ESPANYOL 20%
Expected goals: OSA 1.66 · ESP 0.94
Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
OSA or draw80%
Draw or ESP45%
OSA or ESPno draw75%
Draw no bet
OSAstake returned on a draw73%
ESP27%
Clean sheets
OSA clean sheet39%
ESP clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| OSA↓ ESP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are OSA goals, columns ESP. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 12 meetings since 2016/17
OSA 44 drawn4 ESP
2025/26Osasuna1–2Espanyol2026-05-17
2025/26Espanyol1–0Osasuna2025-08-31
2024/25Osasuna2–0Espanyol2025-05-18
2024/25Espanyol0–0Osasuna2024-12-14
2022/23Espanyol1–1Osasuna2023-02-04
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.