La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)

Osasuna vs Espanyol

Saturday 12 Sept, 14:15
Full time
0–2
chances 1.10 – 1.41 xG
✗ missed — we picked OSA; the ESP win we priced at 21%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
54 · 26 · 21OSA · draw · ESP
1–0
Likeliest OSA win · 12%
OSASUNA 54%DRAW 26%ESPANYOL 21%

Expected goals: OSA 1.67 · ESP 0.98

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
OSA or draw79%
Draw or ESP47%
OSA or ESPno draw74%
Draw no bet
OSAstake returned on a draw72%
ESP28%
Clean sheets
OSA clean sheet37%
ESP clean sheet19%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
OSA↓ ESP→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–2 · 2.9%
A ESP win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 12 meetings since 2016/17
OSA 44 drawn4 ESP
2025/26Osasuna1–2Espanyol2026-05-17
2025/26Espanyol1–0Osasuna2025-08-31
2024/25Osasuna2–0Espanyol2025-05-18
2024/25Espanyol0–0Osasuna2024-12-14
2022/23Espanyol1–1Osasuna2023-02-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.