La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 18)

Málaga vs Villarreal

Thursday 17 Sept, 19:30
Full time
1–3
chances 0.36 – 4.25 xG
✓ called — we picked VIL; the VIL win we priced at 51%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 18 assessments
21 · 28 · 51MAL · draw · VIL
0–1
Likeliest VIL win · 14%
MÁLAGA 21%DRAW 28%VILLARREAL 51%

Expected goals: MAL 0.93 · VIL 1.53

Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
MAL or draw49%
Draw or VIL79%
MAL or VILno draw72%
Draw no bet
MALstake returned on a draw29%
VIL71%
Clean sheets
MAL clean sheet22%
VIL clean sheet40%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
MAL↓ VIL→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–3 · 4.8%
A VIL win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
MAL 12 drawn5 VIL
2017/18Málaga1–0Villarreal2018-04-01
2017/18Villarreal2–0Málaga2017-11-05
2016/17Villarreal1–1Málaga2017-02-12
2016/17Málaga0–2Villarreal2016-09-10
2015/16Villarreal1–0Málaga2016-02-13

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.