La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Málaga vs Real Sociedad
Sunday 18 Oct, 17:30
20 · 28 · 52MAL · draw · RSO
0–1
Likeliest RSO win · 14%
MÁLAGA 20%DRAW 28%REAL SOCIEDAD 52%
Expected goals: MAL 0.90 · RSO 1.54
Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
MAL or draw48%
Draw or RSO80%
MAL or RSOno draw72%
Draw no bet
MALstake returned on a draw28%
RSO72%
Clean sheets
MAL clean sheet22%
RSO clean sheet41%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAL↓ RSO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAL goals, columns RSO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
MAL 43 drawn1 RSO
2017/18Málaga2–0Real Sociedad2018-04-22
2017/18Real Sociedad0–2Málaga2017-12-10
2016/17Real Sociedad2–2Málaga2017-05-14
2016/17Málaga0–2Real Sociedad2017-01-16
2015/16Real Sociedad1–1Málaga2016-02-28
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.