La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)
Málaga vs Levante
Sunday 6 Sept, 16:30
20 · 27 · 54MAL · draw · LEV
0–1
Likeliest LEV win · 14%
MÁLAGA 20%DRAW 27%LEVANTE 54%
Expected goals: MAL 0.88 · LEV 1.56
Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
MAL or draw46%
Draw or LEV81%
MAL or LEVno draw73%
Draw no bet
MALstake returned on a draw27%
LEV73%
Clean sheets
MAL clean sheet21%
LEV clean sheet42%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAL↓ LEV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAL goals, columns LEV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2014/15
MAL 22 drawn2 LEV
2017/18Levante1–0Málaga2018-04-19
2017/18Málaga0–0Levante2017-12-01
2015/16Málaga3–1Levante2016-05-02
2015/16Levante0–1Málaga2015-12-30
2014/15Levante4–1Málaga2015-02-07
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.