La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 16)
Málaga vs Levante
Sunday 6 Sept, 17:30
Full time
0–0
chances 1.73 – 1.19 xG
✗ missed — we picked LEV; the draw we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 16 assessments
20 · 28 · 52MAL · draw · LEV
0–1
Likeliest LEV win · 16%
MÁLAGA 20%DRAW 28%LEVANTE 52%
Expected goals: MAL 0.84 · LEV 1.45
Goals
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams score45%
Double chance
MAL or draw48%
Draw or LEV80%
MAL or LEVno draw72%
Draw no bet
MALstake returned on a draw28%
LEV72%
Clean sheets
MAL clean sheet23%
LEV clean sheet44%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAL↓ LEV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 11.2%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2014/15
MAL 22 drawn2 LEV
2017/18Levante1–0Málaga2018-04-19
2017/18Málaga0–0Levante2017-12-01
2015/16Málaga3–1Levante2016-05-02
2015/16Levante0–1Málaga2015-12-30
2014/15Levante4–1Málaga2015-02-07
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.