La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Málaga vs Espanyol
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
23 · 32 · 45MAL · draw · ESP
0–1
Likeliest ESP win · 15%
MÁLAGA 23%DRAW 32%ESPANYOL 45%
Expected goals: MAL 0.86 · ESP 1.27
Goals
Over 1.5 goals61%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Over 3.5 goals18%
Both teams score43%
Double chance
MAL or draw55%
Draw or ESP77%
MAL or ESPno draw68%
Draw no bet
MALstake returned on a draw34%
ESP66%
Clean sheets
MAL clean sheet28%
ESP clean sheet43%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAL↓ ESP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAL goals, columns ESP. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
MAL 03 drawn5 ESP
2017/18Espanyol4–1Málaga2018-05-13
2017/18Málaga0–1Espanyol2018-01-08
2016/17Málaga0–1Espanyol2017-02-04
2016/17Espanyol2–2Málaga2016-08-27
2015/16Málaga1–1Espanyol2016-04-03
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.