La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)

Málaga vs Deportivo

Monday 24 Aug, 19:30
Full time
1–1
chances 1.36 – 1.13 xG
✗ missed — we picked MAL; the draw we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
45 · 28 · 26MAL · draw · DEP
1–0
Likeliest MAL win · 13%
MÁLAGA 45%DRAW 28%DEPORTIVO 26%

Expected goals: MAL 1.39 · DEP 1.02

Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
MAL or draw74%
Draw or DEP55%
MAL or DEPno draw72%
Draw no bet
MALstake returned on a draw63%
DEP37%
Clean sheets
MAL clean sheet36%
DEP clean sheet25%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
MAL↓ DEP→012345
0
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1–1 · 12.5%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Málaga and Deportivo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
MAL 42 drawn2 DEP
2017/18Deportivo3–2Málaga2018-04-06
2017/18Málaga3–2Deportivo2017-11-19
2016/17Deportivo2–0Málaga2017-04-15
2016/17Málaga4–3Deportivo2016-11-26
2015/16Deportivo3–3Málaga2016-03-06

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.