La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 10)

Levante vs Real Betis

Saturday 29 Aug, 15:00
Full time
5–2
chances 3.04 – 1.92 xG
✓ called — we picked LEV; the LEV win we priced at 38%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 10 assessments
38 · 26 · 36LEV · draw · REA
1–0
Likeliest LEV win · 9%
LEVANTE 38%DRAW 26%REAL BETIS 36%

Expected goals: LEV 1.48 · REA 1.43

Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
LEV or draw64%
Draw or REA62%
LEV or REAno draw74%
Draw no bet
LEVstake returned on a draw52%
REA48%
Clean sheets
LEV clean sheet24%
REA clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
LEV↓ REA→012345
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5–2 · 0.4%
A LEV win. 7 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly less than 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 14 meetings since 2015/16
LEV 41 drawn9 REA
2025/26Real Betis2–1Levante2026-05-23
2025/26Levante2–2Real Betis2025-09-14
2021/22Levante2–4Real Betis2022-02-13
2021/22Real Betis3–1Levante2021-11-28
2020/21Real Betis2–0Levante2021-03-19

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.