La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Levante vs Barcelona
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
20 · 19 · 62LEV · draw · BAR
1–2
Likeliest BAR win · 9%
LEVANTE 20%DRAW 19%BARCELONA 62%
Expected goals: LEV 1.43 · BAR 2.51
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Both teams score70%
Double chance
LEV or draw39%
Draw or BAR80%
LEV or BARno draw81%
Draw no bet
LEVstake returned on a draw25%
BAR76%
Clean sheets
LEV clean sheet8%
BAR clean sheet24%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEV↓ BAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEV goals, columns BAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
LEV 21 drawn13 BAR
2025/26Barcelona3–0Levante2026-02-22
2025/26Levante2–3Barcelona2025-08-23
2021/22Levante2–3Barcelona2022-04-10
2021/22Barcelona3–0Levante2021-09-26
2020/21Levante3–3Barcelona2021-05-11
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.