La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Levante vs Barcelona

Sunday 13 Sept, 15:15
Full time
2–4
chances 2.67 – 2.47 xG
✓ called — we picked BAR; the BAR win we priced at 66%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
17 · 18 · 66LEV · draw · BAR
1–2
Likeliest BAR win · 9%
LEVANTE 17%DRAW 18%BARCELONA 66%

Expected goals: LEV 1.34 · BAR 2.65

Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
LEV or draw34%
Draw or BAR84%
LEV or BARno draw82%
Draw no bet
LEVstake returned on a draw20%
BAR80%
Clean sheets
LEV clean sheet7%
BAR clean sheet26%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
LEV↓ BAR→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–4 · 3.6%
A BAR win. 6 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
LEV 21 drawn13 BAR
2025/26Barcelona3–0Levante2026-02-22
2025/26Levante2–3Barcelona2025-08-23
2021/22Levante2–3Barcelona2022-04-10
2021/22Barcelona3–0Levante2021-09-26
2020/21Levante3–3Barcelona2021-05-11

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.