La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)
Getafe vs Málaga
Sunday 20 Sept, 12:00
Full time
1–0
chances 1.19 – 0.66 xG
✓ called — we picked GET; the GET win we priced at 43%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
43 · 40 · 18GET · draw · MAL
1–0
Likeliest GET win · 21%
GETAFE 43%DRAW 40%MÁLAGA 18%
Expected goals: GET 0.97 · MAL 0.56
Goals
Over 1.5 goals44%
Over 2.5 goals21%
Over 3.5 goals9%
Both teams score30%
Double chance
GET or draw83%
Draw or MAL57%
GET or MALno draw60%
Draw no bet
GETstake returned on a draw71%
MAL29%
Clean sheets
GET clean sheet57%
MAL clean sheet38%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| GET↓ MAL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–0 · 20.6%
A GET win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 21 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2014/15
GET 40 drawn2 MAL
2017/18Málaga0–1Getafe2018-05-19
2017/18Getafe1–0Málaga2018-01-12
2015/16Málaga3–0Getafe2016-02-05
2015/16Getafe1–0Málaga2015-09-18
2014/15Málaga3–2Getafe2015-02-28
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.