La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 15)

Getafe vs Deportivo

Sunday 13 Sept, 17:30
Full time
1–1
chances 0.99 – 0.94 xG
✗ missed — we picked GET; the draw we priced at 29%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 15 assessments
43 · 30 · 28GET · draw · DEP
1–0
Likeliest GET win · 12%
GETAFE 43%DRAW 30%DEPORTIVO 28%

Expected goals: GET 1.36 · DEP 1.07

Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
GET or draw72%
Draw or DEP57%
GET or DEPno draw71%
Draw no bet
GETstake returned on a draw61%
DEP40%
Clean sheets
GET clean sheet34%
DEP clean sheet26%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
GET↓ DEP→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–1 · 13.1%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2014/15
GET 41 drawn1 DEP
2017/18Getafe3–0Deportivo2018-02-28
2017/18Deportivo2–1Getafe2017-09-30
2015/16Deportivo0–2Getafe2016-05-01
2015/16Getafe0–0Deportivo2015-12-30
2014/15Getafe2–1Deportivo2015-04-05

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.