La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)
Getafe vs Celta Vigo
Monday 7 Sept, 18:00
Full time
1–1
chances 1.46 – 1.42 xG
✗ missed — we picked GET; the draw we priced at 35%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
36 · 35 · 30GET · draw · CEL
1–0
Likeliest GET win · 15%
GETAFE 36%DRAW 35%CELTA VIGO 30%
Expected goals: GET 1.00 · CEL 0.89
Goals
Over 1.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals30%
Over 3.5 goals14%
Both teams score40%
Double chance
GET or draw71%
Draw or CEL65%
GET or CELno draw65%
Draw no bet
GETstake returned on a draw55%
CEL45%
Clean sheets
GET clean sheet41%
CEL clean sheet37%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| GET↓ CEL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–1 · 13.6%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 14 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
GET 88 drawn6 CEL
2025/26Getafe0–0Celta Vigo2026-02-01
2025/26Celta Vigo0–2Getafe2025-08-17
2024/25Getafe1–2Celta Vigo2025-05-24
2024/25Celta Vigo1–0Getafe2024-11-04
2023/24Getafe3–2Celta Vigo2024-02-11
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.