La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Espanyol vs Sevilla

Sunday 6 Sept, 20:00
Full time
1–1
chances 1.82 – 0.37 xG
✗ missed — we picked ESP; the draw we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
46 · 28 · 26ESP · draw · SEV
1–0
Likeliest ESP win · 13%
ESPANYOL 46%DRAW 28%SEVILLA 26%

Expected goals: ESP 1.46 · SEV 1.06

Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
ESP or draw74%
Draw or SEV54%
ESP or SEVno draw73%
Draw no bet
ESPstake returned on a draw64%
SEV36%
Clean sheets
ESP clean sheet35%
SEV clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ESP↓ SEV→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–1 · 12.3%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 12 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
ESP 34 drawn13 SEV
2025/26Sevilla2–1Espanyol2026-05-09
2025/26Espanyol2–1Sevilla2025-11-24
2024/25Sevilla1–1Espanyol2025-01-25
2024/25Espanyol0–2Sevilla2024-10-25
2022/23Sevilla3–2Espanyol2023-05-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.