La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Espanyol vs Sevilla
Sunday 6 Sept, 19:00
47 · 28 · 26ESP · draw · SEV
1–0
Likeliest ESP win · 13%
ESPANYOL 47%DRAW 28%SEVILLA 26%
Expected goals: ESP 1.47 · SEV 1.05
Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
ESP or draw74%
Draw or SEV53%
ESP or SEVno draw73%
Draw no bet
ESPstake returned on a draw64%
SEV36%
Clean sheets
ESP clean sheet35%
SEV clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ESP↓ SEV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ESP goals, columns SEV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
ESP 34 drawn13 SEV
2025/26Sevilla2–1Espanyol2026-05-09
2025/26Espanyol2–1Sevilla2025-11-24
2024/25Sevilla1–1Espanyol2025-01-25
2024/25Espanyol0–2Sevilla2024-10-25
2022/23Sevilla3–2Espanyol2023-05-04
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.