La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Espanyol vs Real Madrid

Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30

Full time

1–2

chances 1.02 – 2.56 xG

✓ called — we picked RMA; the RMA win we priced at 52%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

24 · 24 · 52ESP · draw · RMA

ESPANYOL 24%DRAW 24%REAL MADRID 52%

Expected goals: ESP 1.14 · RMA 1.75

Goals

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams score57%

Double chance

ESP or draw48%

Draw or RMA76%

ESP or RMAno draw76%

Draw no bet

ESPstake returned on a draw31%

RMA69%

Clean sheets

ESP clean sheet17%

RMA clean sheet32%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.