La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 13)
Espanyol vs Elche
Friday 18 Sept, 19:00
Full time
1–3
chances 1.08 – 1.25 xG
✗ missed — we picked ESP; the ELC win we priced at 23%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 13 assessments
53 · 24 · 23ESP · draw · ELC
2–1
Likeliest ESP win · 10%
ESPANYOL 53%DRAW 24%ELCHE 23%
Expected goals: ESP 1.83 · ELC 1.16
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
ESP or draw77%
Draw or ELC47%
ESP or ELCno draw76%
Draw no bet
ESPstake returned on a draw70%
ELC30%
Clean sheets
ESP clean sheet31%
ELC clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ESP↓ ELC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–3 · 2.1%
A ELC win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
ESP 24 drawn2 ELC
2025/26Elche2–2Espanyol2026-03-01
2025/26Espanyol1–0Elche2025-10-25
2022/23Elche0–1Espanyol2023-02-19
2022/23Espanyol2–2Elche2022-10-23
2021/22Espanyol1–2Elche2022-01-10
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.