La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Espanyol vs Atlético
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
28 · 27 · 46ESP · draw · ATM
1–2
Likeliest ATM win · 9%
ESPANYOL 28%DRAW 27%ATLÉTICO 46%
Expected goals: ESP 1.26 · ATM 1.64
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
ESP or draw55%
Draw or ATM72%
ESP or ATMno draw74%
Draw no bet
ESPstake returned on a draw38%
ATM62%
Clean sheets
ESP clean sheet20%
ATM clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ESP↓ ATM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ESP goals, columns ATM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
ESP 47 drawn9 ATM
2025/26Atlético4–2Espanyol2026-02-21
2025/26Espanyol2–1Atlético2025-08-17
2024/25Espanyol1–1Atlético2025-03-29
2024/25Atlético0–0Espanyol2024-08-28
2022/23Espanyol3–3Atlético2023-05-24
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.