La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 9)
Elche vs Real Sociedad
Monday 7 Sept, 19:30
40 · 24 · 36ELC · draw · RSO
2–1
Likeliest ELC win · 8%
ELCHE 40%DRAW 24%REAL SOCIEDAD 36%
Expected goals: ELC 1.69 · RSO 1.60
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
ELC or draw64%
Draw or RSO60%
ELC or RSOno draw76%
Draw no bet
ELCstake returned on a draw53%
RSO47%
Clean sheets
ELC clean sheet20%
RSO clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ELC↓ RSO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ELC goals, columns RSO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
ELC 11 drawn8 RSO
2025/26Real Sociedad3–1Elche2026-02-07
2025/26Elche1–1Real Sociedad2025-11-07
2022/23Real Sociedad2–0Elche2023-03-19
2022/23Elche0–1Real Sociedad2022-08-27
2021/22Elche1–2Real Sociedad2022-04-10
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.