La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 16)

Elche vs Real Sociedad

Monday 7 Sept, 20:30
Full time
2–3
chances 2.87 – 0.88 xG
✗ missed — we picked ELC; the RSO win we priced at 35%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 16 assessments
40 · 25 · 35ELC · draw · RSO
2–1
Likeliest ELC win · 9%
ELCHE 40%DRAW 25%REAL SOCIEDAD 35%

Expected goals: ELC 1.63 · RSO 1.52

Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
ELC or draw65%
Draw or RSO60%
ELC or RSOno draw75%
Draw no bet
ELCstake returned on a draw53%
RSO47%
Clean sheets
ELC clean sheet22%
RSO clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ELC↓ RSO→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–3 · 3.4%
A RSO win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
ELC 11 drawn8 RSO
2025/26Real Sociedad3–1Elche2026-02-07
2025/26Elche1–1Real Sociedad2025-11-07
2022/23Real Sociedad2–0Elche2023-03-19
2022/23Elche0–1Real Sociedad2022-08-27
2021/22Elche1–2Real Sociedad2022-04-10

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.