La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 15)

Elche vs Real Madrid

Tuesday 15 Sept, 19:30
Full time
2–3
chances 1.05 – 3.46 xG
✓ called — we picked RMA; the RMA win we priced at 64%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 15 assessments
16 · 20 · 64ELC · draw · RMA
1–2
Likeliest RMA win · 10%
ELCHE 16%DRAW 20%REAL MADRID 64%

Expected goals: ELC 1.16 · RMA 2.34

Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
ELC or draw36%
Draw or RMA84%
ELC or RMAno draw80%
Draw no bet
ELCstake returned on a draw20%
RMA80%
Clean sheets
ELC clean sheet10%
RMA clean sheet32%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ELC↓ RMA→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–3 · 4.5%
A RMA win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
ELC 03 drawn7 RMA
2025/26Real Madrid4–1Elche2026-03-14
2025/26Elche2–2Real Madrid2025-11-23
2022/23Real Madrid4–0Elche2023-02-15
2022/23Elche0–3Real Madrid2022-10-19
2021/22Real Madrid2–2Elche2022-01-23

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.