La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Elche vs Celta Vigo
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
40 · 27 · 33ELC · draw · CEL
1–0
Likeliest ELC win · 9%
ELCHE 40%DRAW 27%CELTA VIGO 33%
Expected goals: ELC 1.51 · CEL 1.34
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
ELC or draw67%
Draw or CEL60%
ELC or CELno draw73%
Draw no bet
ELCstake returned on a draw55%
CEL45%
Clean sheets
ELC clean sheet26%
CEL clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ELC↓ CEL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ELC goals, columns CEL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
ELC 22 drawn6 CEL
2025/26Celta Vigo3–1Elche2026-05-03
2025/26Elche2–1Celta Vigo2025-09-28
2022/23Celta Vigo1–0Elche2023-04-26
2022/23Elche0–1Celta Vigo2023-01-06
2021/22Celta Vigo1–0Elche2022-05-15
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.