La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Elche vs Barcelona

Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30

Full time

0–5

chances 1.18 – 4.25 xG

✓ called — we picked BAR; the BAR win we priced at 64%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

17 · 19 · 64ELC · draw · BAR

ELCHE 17%DRAW 19%BARCELONA 64%

Expected goals: ELC 1.26 · BAR 2.45

Goals

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams score66%

Double chance

ELC or draw36%

Draw or BAR83%

ELC or BARno draw81%

Draw no bet

ELCstake returned on a draw21%

BAR79%

Clean sheets

ELC clean sheet9%

BAR clean sheet28%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.