La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 12)

Deportivo vs Valencia

Sunday 30 Aug, 17:30
Full time
3–1
chances 1.41 – 1.02 xG
✗ missed — we picked VAL; the DEP win we priced at 32%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 12 assessments
32 · 29 · 39DEP · draw · VAL
0–1
Likeliest VAL win · 13%
DEPORTIVO 32%DRAW 29%VALENCIA 39%

Expected goals: DEP 1.13 · VAL 1.26

Goals
Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
DEP or draw61%
Draw or VAL68%
DEP or VALno draw71%
Draw no bet
DEPstake returned on a draw45%
VAL55%
Clean sheets
DEP clean sheet27%
VAL clean sheet34%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
DEP↓ VAL→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
3–1 · 2.4%
A DEP win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Deportivo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
DEP 13 drawn4 VAL
2017/18Valencia2–1Deportivo2018-05-20
2017/18Deportivo1–2Valencia2018-01-13
2016/17Valencia3–0Deportivo2017-04-02
2016/17Deportivo1–1Valencia2016-10-31
2015/16Deportivo1–1Valencia2016-01-24

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.