La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Deportivo vs Sevilla

Wednesday 16 Sept, 17:00
Full time
0–1
chances 0.19 – 0.85 xG
✗ missed — we picked DEP; the SEV win we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
46 · 26 · 28DEP · draw · SEV
1–0
Likeliest DEP win · 10%
DEPORTIVO 46%DRAW 26%SEVILLA 28%

Expected goals: DEP 1.61 · SEV 1.23

Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
DEP or draw72%
Draw or SEV54%
DEP or SEVno draw74%
Draw no bet
DEPstake returned on a draw62%
SEV38%
Clean sheets
DEP clean sheet29%
SEV clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
DEP↓ SEV→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–1 · 7.1%
A SEV win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
DEP 03 drawn5 SEV
2017/18Deportivo0–0Sevilla2018-04-17
2017/18Sevilla2–0Deportivo2017-12-02
2016/17Sevilla4–2Deportivo2017-04-08
2016/17Deportivo2–3Sevilla2016-11-19
2015/16Sevilla1–1Deportivo2016-04-17

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.