La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 12)

Deportivo vs Real Betis

Sunday 20 Sept, 16:30
Full time
1–1
chances 1.94 – 1.00 xG
✗ missed — we picked REA; the draw we priced at 25%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 12 assessments
28 · 25 · 47DEP · draw · REA
1–2
Likeliest REA win · 9%
DEPORTIVO 28%DRAW 25%REAL BETIS 47%

Expected goals: DEP 1.29 · REA 1.70

Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
DEP or draw53%
Draw or REA72%
DEP or REAno draw75%
Draw no bet
DEPstake returned on a draw38%
REA62%
Clean sheets
DEP clean sheet18%
REA clean sheet28%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
DEP↓ REA→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–1 · 11.2%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16
DEP 13 drawn2 REA
2017/18Deportivo0–1Real Betis2018-02-12
2017/18Real Betis2–1Deportivo2017-09-16
2016/17Deportivo1–1Real Betis2017-03-08
2016/17Real Betis0–0Deportivo2016-08-26
2015/16Deportivo2–2Real Betis2016-02-14

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.