La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
Sunday 25 Oct, 15:15
36 · 29 · 36CEL · draw · REA
1–0
Likeliest CEL win · 9%
CELTA VIGO 36%DRAW 29%REAL BETIS 36%
Expected goals: CEL 1.34 · REA 1.33
Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
CEL or draw64%
Draw or REA64%
CEL or REAno draw71%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw50%
REA50%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet26%
REA clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CEL↓ REA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CEL goals, columns REA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
CEL 69 drawn7 REA
2025/26Real Betis1–1Celta Vigo2026-03-15
2025/26Celta Vigo1–1Real Betis2025-08-27
2024/25Celta Vigo3–2Real Betis2025-02-08
2024/25Real Betis2–2Celta Vigo2024-11-10
2023/24Real Betis2–1Celta Vigo2024-04-12
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.