La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)
Celta Vigo vs Racing
Saturday 19 Sept, 16:30
Full time
5–0
chances 2.23 – 0.72 xG
✓ called — we picked CEL; the CEL win we priced at 56%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
56 · 21 · 23CEL · draw · RAC
2–1
Likeliest CEL win · 9%
CELTA VIGO 56%DRAW 21%RACING 23%
Expected goals: CEL 2.17 · RAC 1.36
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals47%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
CEL or draw77%
Draw or RAC44%
CEL or RACno draw79%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw71%
RAC29%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet26%
RAC clean sheet11%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CEL↓ RAC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
5–0 · 1.0%
A CEL win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.